Media respect and pollster love aside I thought I'd take a look at the actual reliability of the Des Moines register poll.
So I took the results for the last three competitive caucus polls compared to the actual results, helpfully provided by Politico, and did some simple calculations.
It turns out the actual error is generally outside the commonly states Margin of Error. The average absolute error, or error regardless of direction, is 7 points compared to the actual Caucus results.
Candte DMR Actual Error Pcnt Error
Al Gore 56 63 7 11%
Bradley 28 36 8 22%
Bush 43 41 2 5%
Forbes 20 30 10 33%
Keyes 8 14 6 43%
Kerry 26 38 12 32%
Edwards 23 32 9 28%
Dean 20 18 2 11%
Gephrdt 18 11 7 64%
Average 7 28%
Median 7 28%
Statistically the Register's best result was the Gore/Bradley contest, which isn't surprising given that predicting a two candidate contest in caucus is much less complicated.
Nor is there a pattern in inflating or deflating the DMR poll front runner, Gore's result was less understated than Bradley's, George Bush actually underperformed his polling and Kerry over performed.
The bottom line is this is one data point, not a magic crystal ball. So, for the candidates, staffs, volunteers and reporters, back to work.
|
|
|
Permalink :: 0 Comments :: Post a Comment
|
In order to post a comment, you must be logged in. If you have a member account, please log in to comment.
If not, you can make an account right here. It's quick and free.