It's struck me that the critical contest in the Democratic race may be the Wisconsin race on February 19th, not the one on March 4th in Ohio and Texas as everyone seems to be assuming.  After Tuesday, Barack Obama is going to be the clear front runner in delegates, votes and money.

Wisconsin will be the first state that will vote after semi-official front runnerhood is conferred on Obama by the press. (Hawaii votes then too, but it's one of Obama's home states and hardly considered a 'bell weather').  In any case, while there are some points in Obama's favor there given the penetration of Chicago's media market into the southern part of the state, it's also the kind of blue collar state Hillary should be able to make inroads. The most recent poll taken there, shows Clinton in the lead 50% to 41%, granted it was ARG, but still.